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===Study shows risky, least risky housing markets===

This was in REAL Trends E-mail Update Friday, November 10th, 2006

Some California homeowners may see home prices decline over the next couple of years, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., a Walnut Creek (CA)–based private mortgage insurer. PMI produces a quarterly U.S. Market Risk Index based on local economic conditions, income, and interest rates. The statistical model estimates the probability of falling home prices over the next two years.

Eight of the 10 riskiest home markets are in California,with San Diego as the riskiest, according to the analysis. They are:

1. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos (CA), 60.3 percent
2. Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville (CA), 60.1 percent
3. Oakland-Fremont-Hayward (CA), 60 percent
4. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine (CA), 59.9 percent
5. Nassau-Suffolk (NY), 59.8 percent
6. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario (CA), 59.6 percent
7. Boston-Quincy (MA), 59.6 percent
8. Providence-New Bedford-Fall River (RI/MA), 59 percent
9. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale (CA), 59 percent
10. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (CA), 58.9 percent

The report picks markets in Texas and the Midwest as the 10 least at risk of price declines, with Pittsburgh as the least risky. The least risky markets are:

1. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown (TX), 8.8 percent
2. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro (TN), 8.6 percent
3. San Antonio (TX), 7.8 percent
4. Fort Worth-Arlington (TX) (MSAD), 7.6 percent
5. Columbus (OH), 7.4 percent
6. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor (OH), 7.4 percent
7. Cincinnati-Middletown, (OH/KY), 7.2 percent
8. Memphis (TN/MS/AK), 6.8 percent
9. Indianapolis-Carmel (IN), 6.3 percent
10. Pittsburgh (PA), 6.1 percent



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